The peace treaty was signed in Moscow on 27 June 1997 between Rahmon and Said Abdullo Nuri, leader of the Tajik United Opposition (UTO), following a series of UN-brokered peace talks. At the end of the war, Tajikistan was in a state of total devastation. The number of people killed was estimated at between 30,000 and 60,000. About 1.2 million people were refugees inside and outside the country. Tajikistan`s physical infrastructure, public services and economy were booming and a large part of the population survived the subsistence subsidies of international humanitarian organizations. In December 1994, the United Nations set up an observation mission to maintain peace negotiations until the parties to the conflict signed a comprehensive peace agreement in 1997.  Tajikistan remains the weakest nation in Central Asia. During the decade when he became independent, he was torn apart by civil war and saw his economy collapse. Drugs, refugees and the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan are pervasive concerns, while the political system remains fragile and vulnerable to violence. Corruption, regionalism and external threats undermined the implementation of the 1997 peace agreement, which ended five years of civil war. The harassing Tajiks place high hopes in the peace agreement. But their optimism is gradually fading.
Although the fear of a resumption of hostilities and the presence of Russian troops are, to some extent, stabilizing elements, several factors, both domestically and externally, have the potential to seriously destabilize Tajikistan. However, it is unlikely that an individual will do so in isolation. Rather, it would act as a domino stone over others and cause a chain effect of instability. On June 27, 2017, Tajikistan celebrates the 20th anniversary of the peace agreement that ended the bloody civil war. How and why the most violent conflict in the former Soviet Union occurred in Tajikistan, its terrible consequences, and how irreconcilable parties shook hands and promised to keep the peace – CAAN asked these questions to Dr. Tim Epkenhans, author of “The Origins of the Civil War in Tajikistan. Dr Epkenhans, a professor at the University of Freiburg, teaches political Islam and was director of the OSCE Academy in Biskkek from 2005 to 2009. The civil war had more than two parties and for many years Rahmon was more seriously challenged by the field commanders of his own faction than by the field commanders of the opposition. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan changed the parameters of the conflict and called on Russia and Iran to exert their influence over the UTO and the Dushanbe government. That was an important factor. At the same time, the UTO and the Rahmon government were ready to negotiate peace. The political elites around Rahmon certainly benefited the most from the agreement.
The peace dividend for the former UTO was limited.